Essay · 2026-06-15
Against fatalism and the blueprint alike
Anyone who wants to change something but cannot foresee how it will turn out has two tempting paths, and both are wrong. The one says: it's all predetermined anyway, so don't bother. The other says: I know where this is going, so anything goes. The honest path runs between them.
Anyone who wants to change something but cannot foresee how it will turn out has two tempting paths, and both are wrong. The one says: it's all predetermined anyway, so don't bother. The other says: I know where this is going, so any means is justified. The honest path runs between them, and two thinkers point the way.
The open gate
Begin with a hopeful fact that Hannah Arendt placed at the centre of her thought: the capacity to begin. Every human being who is born, she wrote, brings something irreducibly new into the world, the capacity to act, to set in motion something that does not follow from the past. She called this natality, and it is the ground of hope against every determinism. For as long as human beings can begin, the future is never closed; no wheel, no law, no prediction can nail it shut, because the next deed can be genuinely new. This is no naive optimism, Arendt had seen the darkest century at close range. It is a sober observation: the unforeseen does not only befall us as catastrophe, it can also be begun by us, and begun well.
The two abysses
But an open future is a fork, and here Albert Camus enters. In a world without given meaning, two abysses threaten. The first is nihilism and fatalism: nothing matters, everything is predestined, so why act, surrender. The second is more dangerous: the revolutionary violence that sacrifices real, present-day people for a guaranteed utopia of tomorrow. Whoever believes he knows where history is heading is quick to justify any means of getting there, and the blueprint becomes a licence for murder. Camus refused them both. Against fatalism he set rebellion; against utopian violence he set the limit, there are things you do not do, not even for paradise. And his image of Sisyphus, eternally pushing his rock up the mountain: in a world without guarantees, the dignity lies in the sustained effort itself.
The third way, for those who build
The builder's stance is that third way. Begin something. Act step by step. Accept that you may be mistaken. And refuse to sacrifice real people to a certainty you do not possess. It is renewal through building and correcting, not through tearing down, modest and courageous at once. Notice how the two temptations are really the same: utopian violence is the delusion that we know the future, plus the power to enforce it; fatalism is the other side of that same coin. It's all predetermined anyway, so let it go. Both are a flight from the open present, which is where the work actually lies.
The other side
And to be honest: "the capacity to begin" can sound naively optimistic, as though every beginning were good. It is not, to begin can also be catastrophic, for the new is not automatically the better. And "refuse utopian violence" does not mean "refuse all large-scale change"; step by step is not the same as cowardly, and sometimes a great leap is exactly what is needed. So the honest version is this: the openness of the future is a responsibility, not a guarantee of progress. We can begin well or badly. And that is precisely why what we choose matters.
The temptation at the extremes is loud: the longing for collapse, the strongman who sells certainty, the "just tear it down". The harder, humbler path is to begin something and to improve it, hope not as prediction, but as discipline.
A moment to take with you: if you want change, do you choose the path of beginning-and-adjusting, or the one of tearing down for a future you are certain you know? And what limits would you never cross, not even to prove yourself right?
The audiobook for this essay
The Present and the Prediction
The counterpart to the part on rise and fall: acting wisely in the present, from the Stoic dichotomy to Taleb's antifragility, without fortune-telling.
Audio in Dutch
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